Wow, Gabe, that was actually well-reasoned. Well, except for the part about buying breakfast. In fact, I’m pretty sure you don’t want me going into any personal history on this. Your wife thinks highly of you, I hate to ruin that in a blog post.
So instead I will ruin one of your theories. If the line is “off” for ND, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc., then savvy gamblers will recognize that there is free money out there to be had. Once that money has poured in to arbitrage it away, there would be too much on one side and Vegas, which isn’t really in the prognosticating industry so much as the risk-mitigation business, would have to move the line accordingly.
Efficient markets. Look into the concept.
Anyway, I went 1-3 last week to cement my place among the world’s worst clairvoyants (7-21 on the season). I think you are doing better only because you stopped counting.
So you stick to your rules, I’m going to use some of my own to pick your games. (more…)