Wow, Gabe, that was actually well-reasoned. Well, except for the part about buying breakfast. In fact, I’m pretty sure you don’t want me going into any personal history on this. Your wife thinks highly of you, I hate to ruin that in a blog post.
So instead I will ruin one of your theories. If the line is “off” for ND, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc., then savvy gamblers will recognize that there is free money out there to be had. Once that money has poured in to arbitrage it away, there would be too much on one side and Vegas, which isn’t really in the prognosticating industry so much as the risk-mitigation business, would have to move the line accordingly.
Efficient markets. Look into the concept.
Anyway, I went 1-3 last week to cement my place among the world’s worst clairvoyants (7-21 on the season). I think you are doing better only because you stopped counting.
So you stick to your rules, I’m going to use some of my own to pick your games.
Rule #1 Lloyd Carr cannot beat Cheaty McSweatervest.
This is true. But this is Bizarro College Football season (I think I stole this term from Being Sven over on Deadspin) so I’m taking the Wolverines at home. And tOSU is not a better team than the one that got Zooked last weekend. They played a shit weak sked.
Rule #2 bet against hypocrites.
I have no justification for this rule other than wanting Leach to shut the fuck up. Weren’t the Red Raiders gifted a call for a TD that they didn’t really score to beat OU last time the game was in Lubbock (fuck has it already been two years)? Games in Lubbock always make me nervous as a bettor, but I think Stoops wants to bitchslap The Dread Pirate Leach more than anyone else this year.
Rule #3: Never give more than 10 on the road.
I just made that one up. Ducks win. Cats cover. I agree on Dixon, but I have this fear that the Easties are starting to build hypegasm behind Tebow.
Cal -7 over Washington
Remember when Cal was going to play for the National Championship like back in week 2? And remember when people were laughing that the Irish probably wanted Willingham back, also back around week 2? Well, both have done a fair amount of sucking since then, but the Golden Bears have done less of it. Isn’t Locker not playing? Can I not unuse a confusing double negative? This seems like a sucker bet. And I’m a sucker.
Air Force -11 over San Diego State
I’ll eat a shoe if the Falcons don’t beat the Aztecs by more than they beat the Irish. Plus they are at home.
Georgia -7.5 over Kentucky
Uh, have you seen Georgia’s offense in the past few weeks? I have. It’s really good. And the Cats’s defense has given up 38, 37, 45, 31, and 20 in its last 5 games. Dawgs easy.
Navy -17 over Northen Illinois
I haven’t seen a single snap of Huskies football this season. But Navy is unstoppable. Just ask North Texas and Notre Dame. But don’t ask Delaware. Even in losing to the Blue Hens the Middies put up 52 points. Of course they gave up 59. So Navy’s defense is atrocious. I could really go around like this all day. But I won’t. I’m taking Navy and giving points. And that’s why they call it gambling.