No, he will. You might as well etch it into the record books today.
And you should totally believe that if you also believe that there is nothing unusual about Barry Bonds’ home run total.
The point* has been made before but the basic argument is pretty simple: In the history of the game, every slugger ever has lost power when they approached their late 30s. Yet, here comes one guy who, when he gets to be the same age as those guys whose power declined, he goes the other way and suddenly has a power explosion.
You really think there is nothing peculiar about that?
If you are going to fall for that about Barry for whatever reason—that he is simply a great player and that diet, nutrition, training, fitness etc., are allowing players to be better longer—then you should expect to see the feat duplicated by other players from here on out.
So, from the season in which he turned 37 (when he hit a single-season record 73 home runs) to today (he’s at 753), Bonds has hit 259 home runs.
Griffey turns 37 this season. So he is totally due for the same power surge. Awesome. Just add 259 to his total going into this season, and it’s a fact: 822.
Boom. Griffey is going to so own Bonds.
So what if Griffey is only on pace to hit 43 this year.
Oh wait, that’s kind of a problem seeing how that’d be a full 30 HR short of Barry’s total at the same age.
The funny thing is that everyone seems to acknowledge that not only is Griffey not going to make 822, he’s not going to get near whatever final number Barry posts.
There have been a litany of articles—look here, here, and here, not to mention here, and here (if you want some satire to go with)—about how if Griffey had stayed healthy over the past five-odd seasons it would be him chasing history and taking the eventual mantle of home run king.
So why are they all resigned to the fact that there isn’t a late life increase in home runs on the way from Griffey? He doesn’t even have to match Bonds’ post-37 total to crush his career number.
Why? Because to believe that someone is capable of hitting 250-plus home runs after the age of 37 is to believe something completely ridiculous. You might as well believe in unicorns or wookies. And the general resignation about Griffey’s inability to do that should tell you all you need to know about Barry.
Well, not all. He seems like kind of an ass of a person to boot.
[*Ed Note: As Bonds is now really on the cusp of “history”—currently 2 shy of Aaron’s mark—that is an admittedly half-assed excuse redirect people to that original Bonds post. Yes, it’s a both egotistical and meta to have a post about a post you already posted, but if you’ve got a half and hour and a slide rule, it’s still probably worth the effort.]